Quantitative Analysis of Macro Liquidity and Market Regimes Using Alternative Data

Market forecasts based solely on traditional financial indicators, such as interest rates, inflation and central-bank balance sheets, have lost explanatory power as digital assets and decentralized liquidity pools have expanded in recent years.

This report tests a volatility-estimation model that integrates alternative data, including on-chain transaction logs, stablecoin flows between protocols and distortions in derivatives open interest, alongside traditional macroeconomic data.

By processing these asymmetric data in real-time pipelines and detecting market regime changes early, we describe an approach that maximizes capital efficiency while containing downside risk.